Climate change computer errors to be investigated

Researchers at Edge Hill University are analysing one of the largest weather forecasting systems in the world to ensure it predicts more accurate reports on global warming.

The University's Computing Department has been chosen to join the Quality Assurance for Climate Codes (QACC) project, which looks at climate change predictions made by computer simulations.

Government and military agencies currently use these software models to make critical decisions when devising policies, making the research crucial in helping to eliminate inaccuracies.

Edge Hill University is working in collaboration with SimCon Ltd to identify issues in climate models and develop strategies for the software development processes to overcome and avoid errors that are discovered.

Dr Mark Anderson, Senior Lecturer in Computing who is leading on the project for the University, explained: "Climate change is predicted to accelerate far beyond currently observable effects during the next few decades and large sums of money are being spent to reduce carbon emissions.

"The work we are carrying out at the moment is very important because the predictions of climate change are made by computer simulations. These programs are large and complex, with long histories of development and many authors. There is a risk that they contain significant programming errors which could, in turn, cause underestimation or over estimation of the predicted changes, and undermine the credibility of the studies which make these predictions."

As a result of being involved in the research, the University will become a centre for expertise that will offer a valuable service to climate change research groups all over the world.

Dr Anderson said: "The project is expected to have considerable impact in the climate modelling world. Already we have made some progress regarding the codes used in weather forecasting and our contributions have been welcomed by their developers. The system we're looking at is currently used by major organisations such as the US Air Force Weather Agency, the US Naval Research Laboratory, the National Centre for Atmospheric Research and the Federal Aviation Administration. Therefore, the impact from our research is expected to be far more wide-reaching and will play a significant role internationally in future climate change and weather forecasts.

"The research not only increases our capacity for international collaborative working but impacts positively on teaching as students will be actively participating in aspects of the project work."

Tests are being carried out with various models and will be analysed as part of the investigation process. The final findings will be published later in the year.